核电厂寿期内预期人口分布的估算
Projected Population Distribution Estimation During the Lifetime of NPP
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摘要:
在核电厂选址、建造和运行阶段均需要分析核电厂周围的人口分布特征，并对未来人口变化趋势进行预测，以评估核电厂寿期内的人口分布和可能的变化情况，并作为厂址周围公众剂量评价和实施应急计划可行性论证的基础。核电厂周围的人口预测基于现有人口分布情况，结合相关省市的实际人口增长情况和人口预测资料，通常选用马尔萨斯人口预测模式进行分析和预测。由于我国人口的变化受到地域、政策、经济等多种因素的影响，预测参数存在很多的不确定性，并且有些核电厂评价区域还存在跨行政区的情况，因此在实际工作中会遇到很多问题和困难，本文给出了一些处理方法。相关的分析和预期人口估算方法可以为核电厂周围人口分布预测提供有益的参考。 Abstract:During the siting, construction and operation phases of nuclear power plant (NPP), it is essential to analyze the population distribution characteristics and predict the population trend of the surrounding area, in order to evaluate the population distribution and possible variation trend during the NPP lifetime, and used for the basis of public radiation dose evaluation and emergency planning feasibility demonstration. Population Projection surrounding the NPP always based on the present population distribution situation, Malthus population prediction model can be chosen for analysis and prediction with the consideration of actual and population projection data from relevant provinces or cities. As the Chinese population variation is affected by many factors, such as region, policy and economy, etc. There are many uncertainties for the prediction parameters. Moreover, the evaluation area of some NPP is related to different districts, problems and difficulties would be arisen in the practical work. In this paper, some possible solutions were suggested. Related analysis and population prediction methods will be expected to be beneficial reference in the population projection around the nuclear power plant.
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