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碳电市场耦合机制研究综述:模型分类、联动路径与挑战展望

A Comprehensive Review of Coupling Mechanisms Between Carbon and Electricity Markets: Modeling Approaches, Interaction Pathways, and Research Challenge Prospects

  • 摘要:
    目的 在“双碳”目标持续推进与电力市场深度改革的背景下,碳排放权交易机制与电力市场之间的联动性已成为实现低碳能源系统建设的核心议题。由于碳电市场在运行节奏、边界结构与价格形成逻辑上的差异,碳价信号在电力市场中的传导路径尚不清晰,亟须开展系统研究以推动耦合机制建模与政策协同。
    方法 以碳电市场协同为研究对象,从政策制度、调度机制、出清模型与信号反馈等维度出发,系统地梳理了碳电市场耦合的基本原理与研究框架,归纳出典型的建模思路,包括调度机制嵌套建模、边际成本函数构建、碳价驱动的优化策略与信号响应机制等内容。进一步评述了多目标优化、动态博弈机制与人工智能辅助建模等方法的适用性与演进趋势。
    结果 研究显示,现有碳电耦合建模方法虽已在算法框架与系统表达上取得进展,但在建模边界一致性、时序适配、市场协调机制与碳金融联动等方面仍存在显著挑战。不同模型在应对碳价不确定性、响应市场动态行为、支撑区域协同调度等方面的能力差异明显,尚缺乏统一的系统性分析与适应性评价。
    结论 未来可从一体化出清机制、多能系统协同建模、碳电-金融联动机制与AI驱动的碳价预测与调控策略等方面拓展研究路径,推动构建高效、可控、透明的碳电协同机制体系,为实现绿色低碳转型提供理论支撑与实践工具。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Against the backdrop of the advancement of "dual-carbon" goals and deepening electricity market reforms, the interaction between carbon emission trading mechanisms and electricity markets has become a core issue for building a low-carbon energy system. However, due to differences in operating rhythms, boundary structures, and price-formation logics, the transmission pathways of carbon price signals in electricity markets remain unclear. Systematic research is urgently needed to advance the modeling of coupling mechanisms and policy coordination.
    Method Focusing on the coordination of carbon and electricity markets, the fundamental principles and analytical framework of carbon-electricity market coupling were systematically reviewed from the dimensions of policy institutions, dispatch mechanisms, market-clearing models, and feedback signals. Typical modeling approaches, including nested dispatch mechanism modeling, marginal cost function construction, carbon-price-driven optimization strategies, and signal-response mechanisms, were also summarized. Furthermore, the applicability and evolutionary trends of methods such as multi-objective optimization, dynamic game mechanisms, and AI-assisted modeling were critically assessed.
    Result The findings indicate that while existing carbon-electricity market coupling modeling methods have made progress in algorithmic frameworks and system representation, significant challenges remain in modeling boundary consistency, temporal adaptability, market coordination mechanisms, and carbon-finance linkages. Different models exhibit varying capacities in addressing carbon price uncertainty, responding to dynamic market behaviors, and supporting regional coordinated dispatch, but a unified systematic analysis and adaptability evaluation framework is still lacking.
    Conclusion Future research can be expanded in aspects including integrated market-clearing mechanisms, collaborative modeling of multi-energy systems, carbon-electricity-finance linkage mechanisms, and AI-driven carbon price forecasting and regulation strategies. These efforts will help establish an efficient, controllable, and transparent carbon-electricity coordination mechanism system, providing both theoretical support and practical tools for the green and low-carbon transition.

     

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