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广东省海上风电平价阶段经济性分析

Economic Analysis of Offshore Wind Power in Grid Parity Stage in Guangdong Province

  • 摘要:
    目的 海上风电是未来实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要途径之一,具有良好的发展前景。随着海上风电快速发展,产业链不断成熟,投资水平逐渐降低,上网电价补贴力度逐渐减小。自2021年起,海上风电进入平价上网阶段。以广东省为例,海上风电工程上网电价较以前降低50%,给项目投资开发带来较大压力。因此,平价阶段项目经济效益分析对开发商投资决策尤为重要。
    方法 为分析广东省海上风电平价阶段的经济效益,文章以广东省某1 000 MW海上风电项目为例,通过对项目投资各部分费用占比进行分析,分别讨论了风机设备价格、贷款利率、单位投资和年等效利用小时数、广东省补贴政策等主要因素对项目收益率的影响。
    结果 结果表明: (1)风机设备价格在项目总投资中占比较大,单机容量增大及价格降低良好地改善项目经济性; (2)贷款利率呈下行趋势有利于资本金财务内部收益率增加; (3)资本金财务内部收益率随年等效利用小时数增加而增加,随单位投资增加而降低。当年等效利用小时数低于3 000 h时,在平价上网条件下,静态投资不超过1.4万元/kW项目有一定的经济性。
    结论 研究成果可为广东省未来海上风电项目建设提供参考。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Offshore wind power is one of the important ways to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the future, and has a good development prospect. With the rapid development of offshore wind power, the industrial chain is constantly maturing, and the investment level is gradually reducing. Therefore, the subsidy for grid purchase price is gradually decreasing, and the industry has entered the stage of grid parity since 2021. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, the grid purchase price of offshore wind power projects has decreased by 50% compared with the previous, which has brought great pressure to the investment and development of wind power projects, making economic benefit analysis of projects in the parity stage particularly important for developers' decision-making in investment.
    Method In order to analyze the economic benefits of offshore wind power projects in the grid parity stage in Guangdong Province, this paper took a 1000 MW offshore wind power project in Guangdong Province as an example. First analyzed the proportions of major costs in the project investment, and then studied the influence of the price of wind turbine equipment, loan interest rate, unit investment and annual equivalent utilization hours, subsidy policies of Guangdong Province on the project rate of return.
    Result The results show that: (1) the price of wind turbine equipment accounts for a relatively large proportion in the total project investment, so increasing unit capacity and reducing price can effectively improve the project's economic efficiency; (2) The downward trend of loan interest rate is conducive to an increase in the capital financial internal rate of return (FIRR). (3) The capital FIRR increases with the increase of annual equivalent utilization hours and decreases with the increase of unit investment. When annual equivalent utilization hours are less than 3000 h, the project with a static investment of no more than 14000 yuan/kW has certain economic benefits under the condition of grid parity.
    Conclusion The research results can provide reference for the construction of offshore wind power projects in Guangdong Province in the future.

     

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