高级检索

新型电力系统中气象服务的现状、挑战及未来发展方向

Meteorological Services in the New Power System: Status, Challenges, and Future Directions

  • 摘要:
    目的 随着新型电力系统建设的不断深入,气象服务广泛渗透至源荷预测、运行调度、灾害预警、电力交易等电网运行的不同环节,亟需通过系统性梳理电力气象服务的应用现状与问题,明确其未来发展方向。
    方法 文章通过文献综述与系统性分析,重点梳理了电力气象监测、电力气象灾害预警、电力负荷预测和新能源功率预测等环节的应用现状以及电力气象服务现存问题,结合前沿发展趋势对关键问题进行剖析,对未来电力气象服务进行展望。
    结果 研究发现,随着新型电力系统的不断发展,电力气象服务呈现出多元性的特征,并已成为提升电力系统安全、效率和智能化水平的关键支撑。然而,现阶段仍存在监测网络不完善、预报预警水平不足、数据不适配和电力市场服务模式单一等问题,制约了电力气象服务水平。
    结论 未来电力气象服务应朝着更精细化、智能化、一体化的方向发展,通过电力和气象的深度融合应用实现更精细化的气象监测、更精准的气象预报、提供更完善的能源保供服务,建立更加健全的服务机制,给新型电力系统建设提供重要的支撑。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Driven by the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the traditional power grid operation mode has undergone significant changes, gradually evolving into a new power system characterized by renewable energy as the main source, multi-energy complementarity, and coordinated interaction among generation, grid, load, and storage. In this context, the operation of the power grid is closely related to meteorological conditions. Meteorological services provide essential support for electricity demand and generation forecasting, operational dispatch, disaster early warning, and electricity market management. Therefore, it is urgent to systematically review the application status and challenges of power meteorological services and to clarify their future development directions.
    Method This study adopted literature review and systematic analysis approaches, focusing on the current applications of meteorological services in the power system, including meteorological monitoring, disaster early warning, load forecasting, and renewable energy power prediction. The existing problems of power meteorological services were summarized, and key issues were analyzed in light of frontier trends to provide prospects for future development.
    Result Research indicates that meteorological services have been increasingly integrated into multiple stages of the power system, including planning, operational dispatch, and disaster management, demonstrating diversified functionalities. These services have become critical for enhancing the reliability, efficiency, and intelligence of power operations. Nonetheless, challenges remain, such as incomplete monitoring networks, limited forecasting accuracy, data incompatibility, and restricted service models for electricity markets, which constrain overall performance.
    Conclusion This study proposes that future power meteorological services should focus on enhancing service capability and effectiveness, moving towards greater refinement, intelligence, and integration. Key priorities focus on advancing the deep integration of power systems and meteorology to refine meteorological monitoring, enhance forecasting accuracy, strengthen data interoperability, and improve energy supply assurance services. Establishing a more comprehensive service mechanism will provide critical support for the construction of the new power system.

     

/

返回文章
返回