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燃煤掺氨技术进展及燃煤电厂掺氨经济性分析

Progress of Coal-Ammonia Co-Firing Technology and Economic Analysis of Ammonia Co-Firing in Coal-Fired Power Plant

  • 摘要:
    目的 文章以科学论证燃煤电厂掺氨低碳化改造的技术及经济可行性为核心目标。
    方法 文章采用文献调研、对比分析与定量建模相结合的研究方法分析梳理目前日本、韩国及澳大利亚等国外主要国家燃料氨技术发展情况与我国当前燃料氨发展现状,从碳排放约束、资源基础和能源安全等方面总结其发展需求,同时通过构建燃煤电厂掺氨经济性测算模型,量化分析氨价、碳价、煤价以及标杆电价等关键因素对燃煤掺氨技术经济性的作用机制与影响程度。
    结果 结果表明:煤价400元/t,氨价20006000元/t时,可掺氨比例达到5.7%~18.6%,煤价涨至700元/t后相同氨价下,掺氨比例降至2.4%~8.6%;CCUS成本200元/t、碳价100~300元/t时,减碳比例可达到16.1%~65.4%;减排比例5%~10%时燃煤掺氨更具经济优势,减排20%以上时氨价需低于1800元/t;CCUS改造在成本200元/t且碳价112元/t或成本300元/t且碳价240元/t时;煤价700元/t时,标杆电价提升40%,可承受氨价最高提升161.5%。
    结论 燃煤掺氨混燃技术可在保障火电降碳同时满足发电稳定燃烧的技术要求;在燃煤电厂低碳转型初期,边际发电成本对氨价不敏感,与CCUS改造相比更具边际经济效益优势;与煤价相比,可接受氨价对于标杆电价水平的提升更敏感,燃煤掺氨混燃技术有望为燃煤电厂碳达峰提供有力支撑。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective The article focuses on researching the technical and economic feasibility of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with ammonia for low-carbon conversion.
    Method This study adopted a research method combining literature review, comparative analysis, and quantitative modeling to analyze and evaluate the current development status of fuel ammonia technology in major foreign countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, as well as the current situation in China. It summarized the development demands from aspects such as carbon emission constraints, resource bases, and energy security. Meanwhile, by constructing an economic assessment model for ammonia co-firing in coal-fired power plants, it quantitatively analyzed the mechanism and degree of influence of key factors—such as ammonia price, carbon price, coal price, and benchmark electricity price—on the technical and economic feasibility of coal-ammonia co-firing.
    Result The results indicate that when the coal price is 400 CNY/t and the ammonia price is 2000~6000 CNY/t, the co-firing ratio reaches 5.7%~18.6%. When the coal price rises to 700 CNY/t, the co-firing ratio drops to 2.4%~8.6% under the same ammonia price. When the CCUS cost is 200 CNY/t and the carbon price is 100~300 CNY/t, the carbon reduction ratio can reach 16.1%~65.4%. When the emission reduction ratio is 5%~10%, ammonia co-firing in coal-fired power plants is more economically advantageous. When the emission reduction ratio is over 20%, the ammonia price needs to be lower than 1800 CNY/t. When the CCUS retrofit cost is 200 CNY/t and the carbon price is 112 CNY/t, or 300 CNY/t and the carbon price is 240 CNY/t, and when the coal price is 700 CNY/t and the benchmark electricity price increases by 40%, the maximum acceptable increase in ammonia price is 161.5%.
    Conclusion Coal-ammonia co-firing technology can ensure the reduction of carbon emissions in thermal power while meeting the technical requirements for stable combustion in power generation. In the early stage of the low-carbon transition of coal-fired power plants, the marginal generation cost is not sensitive to the ammonia price, and it exhibits a greater marginal economic benefit advantage compared to CCUS retrofits. Compared with the coal price, the acceptable ammonia price is more sensitive to the increase in the benchmark electricity price level. Coal-ammonia co-firing technology is expected to provide strong support for the carbon peaking of coal-fired power plants.

     

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