Abstract:
Objective The transportation and energy sectors are critical fields for carbon emission reduction, and transportation-energy integration serves as the core approach to lowering carbon emission intensity. As the primary carbon emission contributor in the transportation sector, road freight has entered a strategic opportunity period for its electrification transformation, which urgently requires scientific and feasible investment strategies to support the high-quality development of the industry.
Method From the perspective of transportation-energy integration, a systematic analysis framework of "Scenario-Mode-Strategy" was constructed. On the basis of sorting out industrial development trends, typical application scenarios and technical business models, a quantitative revenue model was established by introducing revenue per kilowatt-hour and internal rate of return (IRR). Combined with sensitivity analysis, the investment value of different scenarios, modes and energy supply modes was evaluated. Meanwhile, a two-dimensional evaluation system of "Scenario Value-Investment Intensity" was designed to achieve the precise selection of high-quality projects.
Result Short-haul transportation on fixed routes is the optimal implementation scenario at present, and the equity participation cooperative construction mode has higher promotion potential. Industrial development is restricted by transport capacity demand, land use, power supply conditions and imperfect standard systems. These constraints can be resolved through precise scenario positioning, model innovation and technical empowerment.
Conclusion Targeted and systematic investment strategies should be formulated from the dimensions of scenario and site selection, business model construction, industrial ecosystem cultivation, digital operation empowerment, and risk prevention and control system establishment. The layout of high-quality scenarios such as closed fixed routes should be prioritized. The "source-grid-load-storage + direct grid power supply" energy supply mode and equity cooperation mechanism can be adopted. Operational efficiency can be improved by relying on digital intelligent platforms, and a sound risk prevention and control system can be established. The proposed research framework and quantitative analysis method can provide a scientific basis for investment decision-making of road freight electrification, forming a systematic and practical analytical path under transportation-energy integration, and promoting the in-depth implementation of transportation-energy integration and the green and low-carbon transformation of the industry.