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气候变化背景下极端天气对风光新能源系统的影响及气象预报应用进展

Impacts of Extreme Weather on Wind and Solar Power Systems Under Climate Change and Advances in Meteorological Forecasting

  • 摘要:
    目的 在全球气候变化和能源转型的双重背景下,极端天气事件的频发强发对风光新能源高占比的电力系统构成了严峻挑战。文章旨在从气象学和气候学视角,系统梳理极端天气演变趋势、影响机理及气象预报技术应用进展,为新型电力系统应对气候风险提供科学参考。
    方法 围绕热带气旋、极端高低温、强对流、干旱和复合极端事件等主要天气气候风险,结合气候变化归因与预估、风光出力机理、电网韧性评估、数值天气预报和人工智能预报等研究进展,对国内外相关文献进行归纳与评述。
    结果 研究表明,台风极端风速和风向突变可造成风机结构性损伤,高温降低光伏转换效率,覆冰、冰雹与强对流天气威胁电网输变电安全,“低风-低光”复合事件引发极端供需失衡,各类极端天气对风光系统运行构成多重叠加威胁。气候变化还会影响风速、地表太阳辐射和冷热负荷等能源气象要素,对风光资源评估和系统规划产生长期影响。“韧性梯形”等概念框架和多种评估方法为认识极端天气下系统性能退化和恢复过程提供了理论工具。基于人工智能的新型预报方法在功率预测、极端天气预警和韧性评估中展现出应用潜力。
    结论 未来需加强复合极端事件形成机理和多变量相依结构研究,改进全球预报信息向场站尺度风速、辐照度和功率预测转化的方法,发展面向能源应用的专业气象服务体系,为新型电力系统安全稳定运行提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Against the dual backdrop of global climate change and energy transition, the frequent and intense occurrence of extreme weather events poses severe challenges to power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy from wind and solar. This article aims to systematically summarize the evolution trends of extreme weather, impact mechanisms, and advancements in meteorological forecasting technology from the perspectives of meteorology and climatology, providing scientific references for new power systems to cope with climate risks.
    Method Focusing on major weather and climate risks such as tropical cyclones, extreme high and low temperatures, severe convection, drought, and compound extreme events, this paper summarized and reviewed relevant domestic and international literature, incorporating research advancements in climate change attribution and prediction, wind and solar power output mechanisms, power grid resilience assessment, numerical weather forecasting, and artificial intelligence forecasting.
    Result Research indicates that extreme wind speeds and sudden changes in wind direction caused by typhoons can cause structural damage to wind turbines, high temperatures reduce photovoltaic conversion efficiency, icing, hail, and severe convective weather threaten the safety of power transmission and transformation in the grid, and "low wind-low light" compound events trigger extreme supply-demand imbalances. Various extreme weather conditions pose multiple overlapping threats to the operation of wind and solar systems. Climate change also affects energy meteorological factors such as wind speed, surface solar radiation, and heating and cooling loads, exerting long-term impacts on the assessment of wind and solar resources and system planning. Conceptual frameworks such as the "resilience trapezoid" and various assessment methods provide theoretical tools for understanding system performance degradation and recovery processes under extreme weather conditions. New forecasting methods based on artificial intelligence have demonstrated potential applications in power prediction, extreme weather early warning, and resilience assessment.
    Conclusion In the future, it is necessary to strengthen research on the formation mechanism of compound extreme events and the multivariate dependence structure, improve the method of transforming global forecast information into wind speed, irradiance, and power predictions at the station scale, and develop a professional meteorological service system tailored for energy applications, providing scientific support for the safe and stable operation of new power systems.

     

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