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摘要:[目的] 为了定量计算输电线路铁塔边坡风险，采取合理手段管理铁塔边坡，保证架空输电线路安全平稳运行。[方法] 以深圳某铁塔边坡为研究对象，根据边坡风险评估框架体系，通过边坡破坏概率分析、危险性分析和危害后果分析，结合边坡周边环境条件，定量计算由于边坡变形破坏可能造成的直接经济损失。[结果] 通过边坡定量风险评估，即使在安全系数满足规范前提下，边坡仍然具有4.75%的破坏概率，财产损失的风险评估值为17.4万元。[结论] 提出并例证了一套输电铁塔定量风险评估方法，评估结果可为输电线路铁塔边坡运营维护部门提供参考价值。Abstract:[Introduction] In order to quantitatively calculate the risk of transmission line tower slope, reasonable measures are taken to manage the tower slope to ensure the safe and stable operation of overhead transmission lines.[Method] Taking a tower slope in Shenzhen as the research object, according to the framework system of slope risk assessment, the direct economic losses caused by slope deformation and failure can be quantitatively calculated through slope failure probability analysis, risk analysis and hazard consequence analysis, combined with the surrounding environmental conditions of the slope.[Result] Through quantitative risk assessment of slope, even if the safety factor satisfies the criterion, the slope still has a failure probability of 4.75%, and the risk assessment value of property loss is 174 000 yuan.[Conclusion] This paper presents and exemplifies a set of quantitative risk assessment methods for transmission tower. The assessment results can provide reference value for the operation and maintenance department of transmission tower slope.
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表 1 边坡岩土体物理力学参数取值表
Table 1
Table of physical and mechanical parameters of slope rock and soil 岩土名称 γ/(kN·m-3) C/kPa Φ/(°) 粉质粘土 16.5 17 22 砂质粘土 17.5 18 24 全风化花岗岩 19.5 22 29 强风化花岗岩 20.5 25 34 
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表 2 概率分析岩土体参数表
Table 2
Probability analysis of geotechnical parameter table 岩土名称 粉质粘土 砂质粘土 全风化花岗岩 强风化花岗岩 γ/(kN·m-3) 均值 16.5 17.5 19.5 20.5 C/kPa 均值 17 18 22 25 标准差 5 5 5 5 Φ/(°) 均值 22 24 29 34 标准差 5 5 5 5
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表 3 各承灾体概率取值
Table 3
Probability value of disaster-bearing bodies 承灾体 结构类型 PT：L PS：T V 输电铁塔 钢结构 1 1 0.5 公路边坡防护结构 钢筋混凝土结构 1 1 0.7 公路 沥青混凝土结构 1 1 0.7
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表 4 财产损失风险评估值
Table 4
Assessment Value of Property Loss Risk 承灾体 PL PT：L PS：T V E/万元 R/万元 输电铁塔 4.75% 1 1 0.5 200 4.75 公路边坡防护结构 4.75% 1 1 0.7 80 2.66 公路 4.75% 1 1 0.7 300.8 10.001 6 求和 — — — — 580.8 17.411 6
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